The Looming Challenge

Conventional wisdom dictates that these communiqués should be breezy and upbeat, touting accomplishments and prospects. However, my chosen line of work, sustainable design, faces an ominous challenge. For that matter everyone, and every profession faces this looming crisis; substantial – to -catastrophic climate change. So, forgive me if I dispense with light hearted banter for a few paragraphs.

I recently read The Looming Tower, Lawrence Wright’s investigation of the historical and ideological underpinnings of Al Qaeda and the events leading up to 9/11. I suggest the threat to global security posed by the energy/climate challenge is even greater in the long run than that posed by terrorism. In fact, a growing global energy and climate crisis may spawn more terrorism.

Earlier this month I participated in the National Council for Science and Environment’s Climate Change: Science and Solutions Conference , here in Washington DC. This meeting drew more than 1200 academics and others interested in the intersection of environmental science and policy. Speakers included leading climate scientists. I also had the opportunity to chair a breakout discussion on green building solutions and climate change.

Sobering Scenarios

The takeaway from the conference is sobering. Consensus is not merely that climate change is underway and that it poses a threat; something that the scientific community has known for years. Rather the discussion now focuses on how much climate disruption will occur, what its impacts will be, and what we can do about it. To summarize, given the current pattern of human activity the earth will probably warm at least 2º C even with substantial mitigation in the form of energy efficiency and renewable energy by the end of this century. This means further melting ice caps, more frequent floods, droughts, landslides, hurricanes, sea level rise and associated human disasters and ecosystem disruption, much of it in the developing world. And, the scientific consensus is that if we cannot avoid 3º warming by 2100, cataclysmic changes may ensue that could render large portions of the earth uninhabitable. See the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPCC) 2007 Synthesis Report for a summary of global climate scenarios.

Dr. John Holdren, of Harvard, who delivered the Chaffey Memorial Lecture at the NCSE Conference, summarizes our choices in the face of the crisis as a combination of the following: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering. Mitigation, in the form of concerted energy efficiency, renewable energy, reforestation, nuclear power development and carbon capture from conventional fossil power plants will only offer a partial solution. Adaption, such as civil works to prevent floods, massive relocations of people from threatened areas, etc, only delivers some of the answers. Unfortunately, the balance is left to suffering: human misery, ecosystem destruction, and so on. It’s not a pretty scenario but it’s delivered by one of the world’s most respected authorities. So it’s up to us to maximize the mitigation and adaptation to minimize the suffering.

Coal is a Major Culprit

Coal is the most readily available energy source, but the dirtiest fossil fuel and the greatest single contributor to atmospheric carbon. On top of current coal - generated pollution levels, China and India have hundreds coal power plants in the development pipeline to energize their rapidly growing economies. The US, too, has dozens of such plants in the works. These power plants represent huge additions of carbon to the atmosphere, in addition to growing inputs from transportation, industry, and domestic activities. Alternatives to coal must be implemented quickly to stem carbon emissions.

A carbon cap and trade system or carbon tax are the most widely mooted policy mechanisms to help limit carbon emissions to the atmosphere. But when will they be implemented and how effective will they be? Renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, while highly desirable, and benefitting from a carbon pricing system that makes them more attractive, will nevertheless only provide a partial solution to the energy challenge; meeting no more than about 15% of the energy budget. Nuclear energy, even though it presents storage risks for waste materials, will be required in increasing amounts. And while it presents massive technological challenges and uncertainty, carbon capture and sequestration from fossil fuel power plant emissions will be necessary.

Buildings Are in the Middle of Things

Buildings are responsible for about half of total energy consumption in this country. About 75% of building energy consumption is in the form of electrical power and here in the US about half of that power is generated from coal. This situation puts those of us in the building design and construction industry right in the middle of climate issue. In case you were thinking there was an easy way out by simply building green with the LEED standard, think again. While LEED is a good place to start, basic LEED Certification for buildings does not automatically guarantee superior energy efficiency, and associated carbon emission reductions.

LEED represents a composite green building “score” summing several criteria including energy, materials, indoor building environment, water conservation, etc.; all of which are desirable. But less than half the score of a typical LEED building specifically assesses its energy performance. Only at the higher reaches of the LEED rating system, e.g. Gold and Platinum, can one reliably expect substantial energy efficiency and renewable energy measures.

While not as ambitious as hoped, the 2007 Energy Bill, signed by President Bush in December, included several pieces of good news. Among them are mandate that inefficient incandescent light bulbs will be phased out for most applications beginning in 2012. Furthermore, new and renovated federal buildings must reduce fossil fuel use by 55% (from 2003 levels) by 2010, and 80% by 2020. All new federal buildings must be carbon-neutral by 2030. This will make federal buildings models of the type of energy efficiency that all buildings need to adopt. These new targets should also spawn innovation and price competitiveness for a host of technologies.

What We Can Do:

In view of the above, here a several things we in the building and construction community must do to reduce building energy consumption:

• Elevate energy efficiency measures to the top of the list for both LEED and non LEED buildings. Inform clients of the critical nature of energy efficiency, its economic advantages and the need to act now.
• Lobby local municipalities and states to adopt more stringent energy performance requirements and incentives.
• Push for higher energy performance criteria in LEED as updated standards are considered and promulgated.
• Emphasize the use of renewable energy sources and lobby for incentives supporting them.
• Model wise energy use in our professional and personal lives.

 

Solar Sails: Photovoltaic Levity with a Message

Finally, on a note that I hope isn’t too frivolous, considering the gravity of the messages preceding this, I have been working on a kinetic sculpture concept utilizing thin – film solar photovoltaic cells. Solar panels are often static arrays, unseen on rooftops. This proposal demonstrates the potential of solar power in a dynamic fashion. As the sun strikes the thin film solar panels, electric power generated by them causes the sails to move. As the sun pattern changes, so does the pattern of sail movement; a sun choreographed dance of sails.